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I agree with you, thinking pretty much the same. I don't think they'll make it, but they won't be that far.

I still see 3DS matching PSP and GameBoy Advance, so it should end at just over 80m. Vita however, I don't see reaching 20m anymore, 15m at the most, which is, too few, and they'll have a combined total of about 95m.

Such a far-cry from the 235m-ish portable hardware sales in the 7th gen...