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PS2 got everyone and sold for over a decade.
PS4 will never get the Eyetoy/Singstar casual crowd, like Nintendo never will get the Wii casuals back.

More importantly, the Wii should have shown that selling really fast has nothing to do with selling really long.

Another important thing is MS being much togher competition then back in the old days as well as this generation lasting for more or less six years until late 2019 and then looking 120% outdated.

That said, PS4 will sell good. I don't expect it to do less than 100 million but i also don't see it going beyond 130 million.

I'm as well expecting a much faster slowdown in sales than Sony fans are used to.