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enrageorange on 02 January 2015
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CGI-Quality said:
enrageorange said:

The 3 million opening week prediction seems crazy to me.

Uncharted 3 came out on the heels of Uncharted 2 which was one of the best rated games of all times and it sold a very impressive 1.3million its opening week when the ps3 had an install base of 55.8million.

Uncharted 3 was not as well recieved as Uncharted 2 so there is no reason to believe there will be a big jump from Uncharted 3 to Uncharted 4.

As for total sales, Uncharted games have all sold very similarly to one another. There hasn't been any big leap over 3 games so it just seems silly to think its likely that the 4th game will randomly have such a massive jump. 10 million would require extremely heavy bundling. As in every single ps4 sold during the 2015 holidays needs to come with Uncharted 4.

The Metascore argument hardly ever, if ever, works. Uncharted 3's Meta didn't stop it from outselling its predecessor. inFAMOUS and Killzone are in the same boat. Pointless to mention.

What makes more sense is your final paragraph, but even then, it can be challenged. Userbase can make a huge difference. The Wii being a very good recent example.

The metascore argument isn't about total sales. It is directed to his 3million week one prediction. Week one sales of games are based on marketing and hype for the game. I am simply arguing that Uncharted 3 is the successor to what is widely considered to be one of the best if not the best game of last generation and it didn't get anywhere near 3million sales week one. So I do not think Uncharted 4, being the sucessor to Uncharted 3, which got worse critic and user scores, will somehow be able more than double Uncharted 3's first week sales.

Uncharted 3 came out when the ps3 install base was 58million. The ps4 install base will be much much smaller when Uncharted 4 comes out.

Again I am not saying that Uncharted 4 won't outsell Uncharted 3. I am just saying that in order for a game in a well established IP to nearly double the sales of the predessor, there has to be some really obvious reason for the huge jump. I don't see any big reason. The ps4 install base will be relatively small when Uncharted 4 comes out. Now say Uncharted 5 comes out when the ps4 install base is close to 100million and Uncharted 4 ended up being the best game ever made. That would lead one to believe that Uncharted 5 might have a chance to really deviate sales wise from the rest of the series.