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It's hard to tell where it will end.. It all depends of what Nintendo do.. But i think it's safe to say it would do more than 15 mill.. :)

If we look at last gen.. There are no reason to think the current trend will continue.. All 3 was at top at some point.. (the reasons for this is not only games, but also price, free services, and other)

As i see it.. Nintendo still have a lot of things they can do for WiiU.

1. Pricecut
2. New model (I have a dream of steam machine included.. but could also be a cheaper/ in other way better version)
3. New type of "casual" games (like Wii-fit last gen)
4. Make a headset (WiiU is prepered for VR, only the headset i missing)
5. Give us free games or a + service (could be "Nintendo VC unlimited" whit GC)
6. Make a deal whit apple/ google/LG or other
7. Go PR crazy.. Make big tournaments (whit insane prices) or other PR related
8. Make vitality sensor and must have (for health freaks) apps
9. Make it more media frindly (mp4, mkv and other formats)
10. New acount system (where Nintendo garentee, that the username/ games and apps, can be tranfered/ or used in online systems.. next 20 years)

That was just some i can think of.. there may be alot other (like no one saw Wii-fit comming)

AND not to forget.. like p0rn.. piracy matters.. just look at ps1/ps2 and wii.. If WiiU gets "Open" i think that will add +30 mill just there..

Buttom line.. way to early to say some yet.. Don't loose fait..