reggin_bolas said:
Dude, where and when will it get a sale spike to reach 20 and beyond? Are you saying Nintendo will support the console for 4 more years? |
Wii U will have at least 3 more years of life and will have a big price cut this is wy i think it will cross the 15M mark and, possibly, will hit the 20M mark, but most likely die in the 20M mark never reaching 25M.
why i think wiiU will have 3 more years, or even 4 years:
simple, lauching a new console in the next 2 years will be a suicide move, Nintendo is not that stupidy... lauching in 2 years will not be "the lauch of a next gen console", it will be "the current gen console that came 3 years late"! Nintendo will gain nothing whit a 1º year console fighting against other consoles that are matured in the market, at the peak of sales! it's just simple, 1 year console (that normaly is the weakest year of a console) vs 3 years old consoles at peak = another failure. No matter the gimmick that intendo will create, a 1 year console vs two 3 years consoles whit huge 3º party support, nintendo don't have a chance!
3 years > the possiblity of being called "the current gen console that came 4 years late" stillexist, but if nintendo works on something revolutionary... well, it can work, if nintendo succeds at creating something great and start a true "next gen", but.... it's still dangerous, Sony and microsoft will have 4 years old consoles, that can still be main products for 2 more years (easy). If nintendo revolutionary gimmick works Xbox/Playstation can just copy and improve it, something that will be terrible for nintendo.
4 years > it's a pain in the ass to keep a product that is not working on the market for 6 years, the good side... like the gamecube, WiiU is making profit for nintendo, it is small profit, but still profit. they sell the harware whit no, or very small, loss and the "Software monopoly" is a huge win for nintendo, because their ips sell well, even whit a small hardware base. (look at Mario kart, the thing have very solid sales! and games like starfox and Zelda are going to have solid numbers and sell even more consoles).
Back to the 4 years plan, well, this is a interesting option, why you ask? Because this gen will be short for Xbox one (i bet 5 years life as the main console) and they will lauch another xbox. As a matter of fact, Ps4 will dominate this gen, will have more than 50% market share and will have a advantage of, at the very least, 50%-60% over xbox one. Microsot isn't in this game to be nº2, they are going to do the same tehy did whit original xbox, a small gen, and a fast lauch of a console! this is nintendo chance! they need to lauch whit the next xbox and "ride the hype" of the "next gen console" togeter whit Microsoft to make pressure on Sony! Sony will make everything possible to make this gen a long gen! because the Ps4 is set for a lanslide win and a "early" next gen lauch can be too expensive for sony that have big "money problems".
that is a very interesting route for nintendo. Keep the low profit, focus on 3ds, and when MS lauch a new console ride the "next gen hype train" whit microsoft, put pressure on sony and make this generation short! this way Nintendo not only put a end for this gen. early, whit MS help, but have more time for working on a good console for next gen.
