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It can pass 15m but it won't pass 20m.

I think a price cut at the right time will do wonders. This is coming from a massive fan of Mario Kart, Smash Bros and Zelda who hasn't picked up a system yet . Its simply too expensive to benefit from that casual secondary console purchase atm.

The system will peak next year, I'm now certain of it. Smash and Mario will keep it selling ok (30-50k) in Q1/Q2.Then I believe we'll get a price cut in the summer followed by these releases:

Mario Part 10 (April-august)
Splatoon- (June-August)
X-(june-oct)
Yoshi- (june-oct)
Star Fox (sept-Nov)
Pokken (sept-Dec)
Zelda (october-Dec)
TBA: (at least one or 2 unannouced holiday titles)