binary solo said:
500K is far too low at this point. 1 million is the minimum head space for Xb one at it's current rate of sales and for the time of year, IMO. And as it seems PS4 has 2 million on shelves it's probably not unreasonable for Xb one to have 1.5 million on shelves. I think 7 million LTD is probable as of today. US LTD for Xb one is likely to be pretty accurate give it is subject to monthly validation and adjustment with NPD. Oct NPD will test the LTD to end of Oct and I think it won;t be far off correct. VGC adjusted Sept US sales up to match NPD. I think on global proportions Xb one US sales vs rest of world is about right. VGC has the Xb one at 59%. It might be lower than that, but I don't believe USA is less than 50% of the global Xb one market. USA is 52% of the Xb 360 market, and no way is Xb one less than that. Though common view is that USA is overtracked and rest of world undertracked, so US market share of 360 might be closer to 50% or maybe even 49%. So if VGC has US % a bit too high and USA LTD, which is pretty accurate, is 55% of global, that makes global LTD as at 1 Nov 6.79 million. My guess for global sales for week ending 10 Nov is ~300, maybe 350K. Add 350K to 6.79 million and I put Xb one sales at 7.15 million as the max of my global LTD estimate to 10 Nov. That "nearly 10 million shipped" PR crap I think will become 10 million confirmed after Black Friday. At which point global Xb one will be over 8 million and a 2 million gap for the beginning of December is pretty reasonable. |
Even though I don´t agree that it was a crap PR statement, the rest of your post sounds plausible :).
