Will wiiu surpass vita this holiday?

[justiceiro]

So, with vita at 9M globlaly and WiiU at 7.41M, holiday season os upon us. Nintendo intend to sell 2.4 million till april, and considering that there si no game planned to be released in january, we can assume they plan to sell 1.8~2M this holliday season. Last year, between black friday and january first week, those plataforms sold:

PSVITA: 940K

WiiU: 1370K

Difference:430K

Last year we had tearway, this year... playstation TV came to the west

WiiU again has a strong title, but in europe no secondary title(last year psvita outsold the wiiu in europe by the way).

So, if we assume that nintendo will hit their target, lets all escale this difference around:

scale = 1.9M/1.37M = 1.4

scale  x Difference = 596K

Still not enough to close the 1.6M gap.

If vita  stay flat

1.9 - 940K = 1M

Still not enough

if nintendo manage to hit their target on the hollidays alone:

2.4M - 940K = 1.06M

Still not enough.

So, to this happens, vita need to be down YoY in(940-540) 40%, which is less than it sold even when launched only in japan, wiiu would need to sell more than it sold on its global launch.

Even with the odds againts it, i still wanted to ask, because the psvita line-up this year seems worse tahn the last year one, and some said that nintendo lowbailed their predctions to not make a huge miss like last year. So, what's is your bet.