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Vena said:
Aerys said:

No but big releases matter to raise the baseline and get good bumps in sales.

Unless you are saying the baseline will be 8-9k early in 2015 ?

The PS4 will not sell well in Japan; 10k, optimistically from me, will be its baseline in 2015.

In reality it will be around what its been now with TEW (which had much higher expectations than reality coffered), so 8-9k on the back of also having a new model releasing to further inflate sales. There will be blips on the radar like DQH and Bloodborne, but that's no different from blips like MK8 and Smash... they go away.

Market share in Japan is handheld/mobile lopsided as well, so that will start to become an ever bigger limiter when the Vita/PS3 are written off entirely by the 3DS/Mobile/Sony as the easy up-ports for PS4 releases will dry up as well.

Except that PS4 will have much more big system seller than Wii U so no, the baseline wont be 8-9k early in 2015, there is enough  games to prevent that , and that's only the beginning, it will get more and more games before they become exclusive.



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m