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BMaker11 on 31 October 2014
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kowenicki said:
Conegamer said:
It's a good performance, but it's only now a matter of time until it falls a long long way behind.

As I recall it was really the second and third years which punched in the numbers for the Wii, and I have zero reason to believe the PS4 can do that we'll in the holidays.


It had shipped 50m by the end of March 2010.  Thats the equivalent of the PS4 being at 50m shipped by March 2016.  Not happening. 

By March 2009 Wii was at 24.4m.  Thats the equivalebt of the PS4 being at 24.4m by March 2015, also not happening, probably.

PS4 has a very good chance of shipping 18-19M by year's end. Maybe even 20M, optimistically. Nearly half that 50M after 1 full year and some change on the market? But 50M shipped by March 2016 is flat out not happening? Even though sales naturally pick up in a console's second year on the market? Not to mention, it's not a valid comparison. Wii was on the market for 3 1/3 years by March 2010. PS4 in March 2016 will only be 2 1/3 years on the market.

As far as 24.4M, again not a valid comparison. March 2009 for Wii would be 2 1/3 years on the market (Nov 2006 - March 2009). March 2015 for PS4 would be 1 1/3 year on the market (Nov 2013 - March 2015). How are those equivalents? If PS4 beats what it did this year (nearly 3M sold (not shipped) 4 months after the launch window) and it does optimistically well (as in, that 20M mentioned above), it will equal what Wii did a whole year ahead of when Wii reached that benchmark, in the same time frame.

Or am I completely misreading your statement? Or maybe you have the dates wrong for Wii?