WiiU Vs. XB1: Do you still think WiiU will win, if so why?

[Michael-5]

TiagoCosta said:

Michael-5 said:

shipments =/= sales, Japan is a great example, didn't XB1 sell much much less then expected? What major exclusives does XB1 have between Halo MCC and Halo 5?

Microsoft shipment for Japan was 40k, already sold more than 33k... You hit the jackpot.

Quantum Break, fable.. It's not like ps4 got any major thing either.

XB360 sold 120k first week, and the original XB did better as well. Microsoft undershipped Japan and still didn't meet expectations.

Quantum Break realistically won't release until fall 2014, if not later, and Fable Legends has no release date.

Also no, it's not like PS4 has The Order, and Bloodborne releasing as major exclusive in February alone. Plus it has a stronger Fall 2014.

Mummelmann said:

You think the One will only sell 3-4 million next year and 2016? Or that the Wii U will sell 9-11 million or more next year and 2016? Both are equally unrealistic, either the One needs to go down about 50% yoy or the Wii U needs to increase 100-140% or so.

You think XB1 will sell 9-11 million units in any year? Realistically both will only sell ~4-6 million annually.

WiiU has sold 80% as well as XB1 in 2014, and Nintendo typically favors well with November/December sales.

I think the One will sell about 9 million in 2015, or 8.5 or even 10, it depends on quite a few factors. How is it realistic for it to sell 4-6 million? It's currently on track for at least 6.5 million this year with 7 million being just as likely, so you honestly think it'll be down yoy in 2015? You realize that you're suggesting perhaps 25-30 million lifetime for the One (not to mention the first time in history that a console will be heavily down yoy in its second CY) if it will struggle to beat the Wii U for a couple of years, and that's just madness, there is nothing to suggest that at all, heck; the 360 sold about 6.8 million in its first CY without any competition from contemporary, record-breaking consoles so seeing as how the One is tracking similar to that in its first CY and the Wii U is getting beat routinely by the Gamecube launches aligned, how can you possible claim any of this with any kind of sense or logic?

I just don't understand how you're coming up with these scenarios at all.

PS: I think you'll find that 2 million is not 80% of 3.1 million, with current standing numbers. With the very likely overtrack/undertrack situation based on recent shipment figures (Nintendo shipped 300k Wii U's in Q3 2013, no reason to think this has tripled or even more and even at double that would make only 600k, which does not correspond with what we know from official sources), it could be even a difference of approx. 1.8 million vs 3.3 or so, making the scenario even worse. Once more; I wonder where you get all this from.

XB1 is on track to selling ~5 million this year, not 6 or 7 million. A good system will sell as much in Q4 as it did in Q1-3, so the absolute best case for the XB1 is 5.5 million (sold 2.7 million for 2014 be Septembers end).

Why would sales double for 2015? For reference 360 sales only increased by 16% from 2006 to 2007, despite Halo 3 being such a massive console pusher. Halo 5 won't push as many units as Halo 3.

Now compare 360 to XB1 sales. For the same time in 2014/2006 the 360 has sold 20% better then the XB1 (3.7 million vs. 3 million). So if XB1 manages to hold this ratio, that still pushes for a 5.5 million limit on 2014 sales.

XB1 is not tracking anything at all like the 360. For most of the year, 360 has been selling anywhere between 50-215% better then the 360 for a given week (comparing 2006 to 2014). It's only because of good bundles in Septmeber has the XB1 managed to make a bit of a comeback, but it's still behind. Plus to make such significant price cuts with bundles so early shows desperation. When 360 started to make bundles and temporary price cuts, sales died shortly afterwards.

Don't make an arguement based off a single month of strong sales.

As for WiiU, yes it's selling worse then Gamecube, but Gamecube only had a 3-4 year lifecycle. WiiU will be around longer, so it's obviously going to sell better overall. I believe I said that I expect XB1 to outsell WiiU eventually, just not anytime soon, and I wouldn't be surprised if XB1 only sold 40 million lifetime. I feel like PS4/XB1 sales are more frontloaded then PS3/360's. Last gen PS2 was outselling the PS3/360 into 2008 (3 years after 360 launched), you don't see that this gen, people are moving on more quickly. So I'm not optimistic about growing annual sales, I think XB1 will be selling 5-7 million units annually, not the 10-14 million 360 saw.