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Hard to say. But I find it incredibly unlikely that either will come anywhere near 1 million lifetime. The last R&C game on PS3 managed about 1.8 million on a vastly bigger installed base and Insomniac has never made their name on the Xbox before and Bayonetta 2 will quite clearly be a dud globally, not only going by pre-orders but it has also disappeared off of the Japanese top 30 after a mere month (likely selling around 1k or so by now) and is launching on a console with a majority installed base that is very unlikely to respond well to such a title (despite forum dwellers saying they will buy it in droves).

If I had to pick one; I think SO might win this battle, but only by 50-100k or so.