cjpierciiw said:
If you would actually look at the sheet you would see it showing 360 selling 3.35 million in November and December. This is far more than last year, and is actually a hell of a lot of systems. |
No, you got your maths wrong. 14.23 minus 11.88 equals 2.35 million. And you have that as worldwide 2.35, while I say 2.7 for NA alone (translates to over 4 million WW).
cjpierciiw said:
I agree with you bigfatj there is no way 360 will hit 18 million. I also think that 15 million is a bit generous. You got to be kidding me it took 360 19 months to sell 10 million. Now all of a sudden they are going to sell 8 million in 6 months. If you look they only sold 2.1 million for the first 6 months this year. You think they are going to jump up to 8 million in the next six months. Not a chance.
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Note that I said 18 million with an early price cut (aug/sep). Without one I see 16 mill. Yeah 8 million in 6 months seems like a fantasy when it took 19 months to sell 10 million. But you should read the article someone linked to not long ago, it was an analysis of last gens sales in light of price. Basically the conclusion was that the "sweet spot" for mass market penetration was at $199 and that it took last gen 18 months to get to that price range (starting from $299), and that's what I believe the X360 core version will hit quite soon (and accordingly be marketed towards the casual people, families and their little kids).
Those 10 million sold X360's were nearly all sold at $399 (since more than 90% is the Premium version). But that's all just a solid base and had it's own strategies, but Microsoft talks all the time about real domination of this gen, and reaching entirely different demographics with X360 than they are currently. They clearly have a goal to sell a lot more than 25 mill like last gen, they don't want to be a console just for the hard-core gamer. No no, I'm sure they're aiming at more than 50 million. And that has to start sometime, doesn't it? What time is better than now, when you have a fiasco start of an already late PS3 and you have the Wii-show to learn lessons from (for how to reach the casual gamers, families yada yada)? And, with the flood of games coming out for the X360 but not for the PS this fall through holidays? The time is now, and MS knows it.
Look at some of my arguments here:
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=2968
And look at the past. As I showed you, the market is there. In 2002 there were 7 million consoles sold in NA alone in the months nov-dec, and yet the then weak Xbox took over 1.5 million of those (being late in the game against an extremely well established PS2, and being without more than one exclusive big hit). Last season, nov-dec, the X360 sold 1.7 mill in NA, only boosted by Gears of War. But this time:
- it's now the prefered choice of traditional gamers (no disrespect for Wii-owners, you all know what I mean. And no disrespect for PS3-owners either, your prime time just isn't here yet), everyone knows the X360 got it's established online following & community, multiplayer games, a broad game library, tons of future titles in development etc.
- it's not a console just for first person shooters anymore (you'll have RPGs like Oblivion, Two Worlds, Blue Dragon, Mass Effect, new car games like Forza2 and DIRT, sneak games like Assassin's Creed and Splinter Cell, adventure like Overlord, Naruto, horror games like The Darkness and Jericho, tons of sports & fighting games, RTS like C&C3 and Bladestorm:THYW and World in Conflict, and even some casual/family/kid games like Guitar hero, Eternal Sonata, Sonic, Harry Potter, Katamari, The Bee game, Rock band and also a few upcoming puzzle games. What's the PS3 got against this other than a couple of the exact same titles... Lair?).
- it's not in the shadow of the huge media focus that was aimed at the PS3 & Wii-launch last year.
- this time consumers know what the PS3 is capable of and what it brings - and doesn't bring - to the table, no one will "hold out" any longer in hopes of hidden potential. Many will agree with me when I say that the PS3 so far is a catastrophy.
And it might have that lower price, that mass market price starting at $199. And after all, based on all this I'm predicting no more than a 60-70% sales increase compared to fall '06 for what looks to be the X360's best time of it's life. So I may ask anyone, really, what can go wrong?
