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Slimebeast on 14 June 2007
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TheBigFatJ said:
Slimebeast said:
I believe that will result in at least 16 million X360's sold by 31dec '07, and could well be over 18 million if MS cuts the price (which I'm certain they will, well before the holidays). If my prediction of an august price cut becomes real, I foresee this (NA sales):
Aug: 500 k
Sep: 600 k
Oct: 800 k
Nov: 1.0 m
Dec: 1.7 m
-------
= 4.6 mill

Multiply that with approx 1.5 and you get a world-wide figure of roughly 7 million, which added to the 11 million you have by august according to your graph gives you the 18 million X360's sold by years end. :)

That's insane.  There's no way in hell the 360 will get those numbers.  They will be reasonably fortunate to pull 1 million in December and 600k in November.


No, it's not insane. Your numbers btw suggests that the X360 even would fail to beat last years numbers (which had the Wii- and the PS3-launch to battle with, and just Gears of War as the real big title. Btw, does anyone know if the fall of '06 had any other US-millionseller title other than Gears?).

Lemmi give you some numbers to compare with from a similar scenario of the past. Here are US NPD numbers from the holiday '02 season (just like the X360 in '07, this was the PS2's 3:d holiday season, and the 2nd for GC and Xbox):

 2002PS2 Xbox GC 
nov  1.320   467  469
dec 2.733   1.033  619 

If you add roughly 10% (for Can) to those you get total NA.  Price at the time was $200, but my prediction is also assuming a price reduction of the X360 (premium at $300 and the core at $200). What you learn from the '02 season is that there is a market "need" for 2.5 million consoles in nov and 4.5 million for december. Obviously I'm not saying the X360 will sell as much as the PS2 at the time because we have the Wii this time, but I can't see the Wii selling 2.7 million in december like the PS2 did, so a part of those will go to X360. 

Also, another difference to 2002 is that the 3 nex-gen consoles today, Wii, PS3 and X360, are much more "nisched" than the 3 were 2002, meaning basically that the Wii has largely a new audience with all of it's casual games and whatnot. So the total next-gen market for holidays '07 could very well be more than the 2.5+4.5=7 mill in NA '02 thanks to that (and still allow an additional mill or so for PS2 sales). Plus this fall/holiday is stronger game-wise than '02, especially for the X360.