Prediction: Wii U Won't Make to the 21m

[ICStats]

tak13 said:

ICStats said:
Well it's trailing the GameCube, thus so far beating 21Mil would be a surprise.

Not again!this is wrong!why comparing sales of the current console with the predecessor or even worse with you predecessor's predecessor,to predict its sales?with that logic,ps4 which dominates ps2 will sell more than ps2 and xbone which dominates xbox360 will sell more than xbox360..for god's sake

Right, things are different now.  That's why you have to add reasoning to comparisons, something you always seem to ignore.

Even if a console is doing great now does not mean it will go on to beat a predecessor's sales.  And likewise, Wii U can still do worse than GC, or better if there are good reasons.

PS4 & XB1 are easier to reason about.  In 6th gen, PS2 + Xbox had sales of around 175 Million, mostly dominated by PS2.  In 7th gen, XB360 gained market acceptance, so PS3 & 360 have almost a 50:50 split.  The consoles are at 166 Million and counting.  Japanese home console market shrunk, while others grew a little.  In 8th gen we can see PS4 gaining market share, XB1 losing market share, but not to the extent of PS2:XB.  The Japanese market continues to shrink.  That's why most folks think PS2 > PS4 > PS3 and XB360 > XB1 > XB.  This idea could change in the future.

The Wii U's market position is most closely compared to GC's ~21.7 Million market.  We can see that it has sold slower than GC for ~2 years, it has worse 3rd party support than GC, and it costs more than GC.  All reasons to expect it to underperform GC.

That doesn't mean it's certain Wii U will definitely sell less than GC; only there is a higher chance that it will sell less than GC.  This idea could also change in the future.