I would say the numbers look good until August/September...
But Metroid, Halo 3, Madden, are all going to provide big boosts for all three platforms in the USA. As will GTA in October when it is released. I actually think October for PS3 could be almost as big as November, and that 360 is going to sell similar amounts from Sept-Nov because of Halo 3, then GTA, then increasing demand from the holidays.
Wii is hardest to predict because if Nintendo is already producing 1.5 million units/month, then they stockpiling one hell of a lot of units. Super Mario Galaxy could be huge, as could Wii Music, and Brawl..
Looking at last year, I would say Gears of War can move at least 1.5x to 2x as many units (360 did 1.1 million in the USA in December) as Halo 3. Gears of War has yet to reach 5 million units sold...while Halo 2 continues to outsell most current gen games and has sales approaching 8 million.
So I would say your numbers are may a touch low on 360 (15 million sold at least I think), too low on PS3 - I'm expecting sales of 6-9 million remember it hasn't had a Christmas in Europe to extrapolate from as Wii and 360 have, and right on the money for what I think Wii will do. However, if Nintendo only tries to meet their projections (14 million sold by March 2008), then they may only get to 16-17 million worldwide by the end of 2007.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
