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Probably next year or 2016 if things go really poorly for MS.

By this time next year though I think most big 3rd parties will start shifting resources over to PS4/XB1 (PC) only projects. So that's when I think you'll see a big jump in PS3/360 owners moving up to the next gen. A lot of people are not going to upgrade until there as PS4/X1 only experiences that are must have.