Q1 = January - March
PS3 sales in Q1 2008 are way up in the Americas, essentially impossible to compare in Europe (launch was too late in the quarter), and down about 5% in Japan from Q1 2007. My guess is that total PS3 holiday sales in 2008 will be 50% higher than 2007 holiday sales.
Wii is up slightly in Japan from Q1 07' to Q1 08', it is up ~35% so from Q1 07' to Q1 08' in the Americas, and up 100% or so from Q1 07' to Q1 08' in Others.
Americas is 50% of the market, rest of the world is 50% for holidays I'd say. So if you factor in the size of Others vs. Japan in the other 50% and assume the increases now will remain (they won't) you'd have Wii sales up about 50% as well.
Since Wii sales were higher last year, even though both are increasing by 50%, Wii will beat PS3 by a larger margin worldwide in 2008.
This is just my initial estimate...I'll have more when I do my Q1 2008 review article.
Obviously we'll know more come April 24 as well when shipment forecasts are released.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
