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DarkD said:
I might have thought it was possible before Mario Kart came out and we had that amazing Nintendo dominated E3, but now I don't think 20-40 million is that far-fetched anymore.

1) As others have pointed out, the PS3 and 360 also started slow.
2) PS4 and One are both going to be stuck in multiplatform hell, and exclusives are going to be far between. PS4's big games this year afterall is a remaster of a game that came out a year ago.... If this becomes a pattern, I think people's opinions of the console will drop sharply.
3) Nintendo's downsides are pretty much overhyped... When people give it an honest chance, they have pretty much universally given it praise. I think as the gen goes on, we're going to see Nintendo cleaning up a lot of these misconceptions and that will naturally increase sales.

Regarding the second point: How is getting almost every multiplat game out there hell? And do you realize that the crushing majority of PS and Xbox consoles are bought for multiplats? The exclusives are just the sprinkles on the cake for most and looking at 2015 it seem that at least the PS4 (the X1 probably as well) is going to have more then enough sprinkles.
Also regarding 3: That the Wii U is almost exclusively a Nintendo game machine (meaning there are hardly any non-Nintendo games) is not a misconception, so if you don't care for Nintendo then you won't care for the Wii U. And to change that up they'd need third parties.