| Puppyroach said: Well, a contraction in the market does mean lesser revenue overall, even though it isn´t a linear correlation. It will mean some games doesn´t generate as much revenue and I am afraid it will be indie developers that suffer most. And you are right, some developers will refocus. We have already seen it with the likes of Sega and Square Enix, moving more towards the mobile market. MS does it aswell, but they have always existed in most gaming segments. But we also saw it with Sony a few years ago. So it is already happening, only not in a massive way. |
Actually, I think Indies would lose out the least cause they typically need the lowest amount of consumers to be succesful, niche markets scale above proportion.
Even BeElite posted an example of Halo selling 8 mill on a 20 mil install base vs 10 mil on an 80 mill install base. Halo is far from an indie, but even then if the market was propotional the next Halo iteration would've sold 32 mill on the 360. A 400% increase in market only resulted in a 25% increase in sales. At best a 25% increase in profits and at worse a decrease cause the game would cost more. Software Revenue decreasing with an Increasing Marketshare.
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