Aielyn said:
You'd be surprised at the power of an evergreen title like Mario Kart. Especially when the biggest result with Mario Kart is that a lot more people are now aware that the system exists. Mario Kart only has to carry the system for a couple of months, and so far it looks like it's doing that (three weeks steady at 60k, with the most recent week actually showing an uptick, suggests it isn't going to move too much in the next few weeks), and then you get the march into the holidays, starting with Hyrule Warriors (which is getting a lot of hype) in September. And we don't have enough information for what will happen in the next few months because... we're not psychics. So we spend our time talking about what is happening now and speculating on what might happen in the next few months. What we can do is look at the last few weeks, and then extrapolate. And when we do that, we see that both Wii U and Xbox One have held rather steady; considering that other than one week's bump for Xbox One from the new UFC game, neither system has gotten a notable release in the period, with Wii U's notable release having come more than a month ago, now. This suggests that the numbers are the new baseline, and the burden rests upon YOU to provide evidence for why they're not. And going "there's no way that the bump from Mario Kart will sustain the system indefinitely" isn't evidence, because all it really does is show your ignorance of Nintendo systems and their sales patterns. For instance, the DS, in 2005, was selling about 100k, and that rate remained about the same even after a price cut, going into September. Then the holidays happened, Mario Kart DS and Animal Crossing: Wild World were released. Now jump ahead to April 2006; nothing major released during this period, yet the DS was now selling 200-300k per week. Note that this was prior to the release of NSMB. It's video games that sell consoles. Price cuts only help if the price is too high to begin with, as Xbox One's price was given its feature set compared with PS4. But it's the games that truly matter. And it's not just game releases - it's the library. Mario Kart 8 provided a major boost to the library, and has sold the Wii U to many gamers. They will now play the system with others, who will also be sold on it. There will likely be a bit of a drop when the MK8+Free Game promotion ends, but it won't be a huge one (maybe to 50-55k), and Nintendo isn't going to leave August devoid of promotions given the success of that one. And then there's Hyrule Warriors, and the other games, and the holiday period. But then, you're not going to accept this, because you've already made up your mind that Wii U is doomed, right? |
3 ndps might suggest a new baseline, 3 weeks of guesstamats that get adjusted after every ndp or official sales announcment do not.
But lets say that is for arguments sake that is the new baseline. Problem is as already pointed out theres nothing coming anytime soon to help it maintain that. U has no 3rd partys to fall back on either. and Smash is still far far away.
So Wiiu rise if it lasts will end in abruptly in late august, thats where wiiu will fall back to if not under its lowest baseline.
Its will fall to the vast array of games its competition is getting. Madden, Destiny, NHL 15, Fifa15, NBA, Alien isolation, Dragons Age, Shadow of mordor, Battlefield, Evolve, Assasins, WWE , Lords of the fallen, Call of Duty, The Crew, Far Cry4
Kart will not maintain wiius baseline in the face of that, nothing wiiu has this year will. Wiiu sales will suffer bad later this year for their lack of 3rd party support.
Hard not to see doom when you look at that list of games and they are NOT coming to the wiiu.
