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I guess you could be correct. Especially in mainland EU where Kinect is very underutilized, and it certainly is not worth the premium.
But summer is not a period when people buy consoles and play games in EU, so I doubt that the traffic will increase.
But it will certainly help in the fall.
I'm afraid that I have no definite numbers to write down, though, all these VGC numbers seem funky to me.