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I think the OP is right on the money. Also though, a lot of the early sales would be from people who enjoyed the late PS3 Sony: The generous PS+ games and frequent releases of exclusives. It's cheeky of them to charge for online gaming though. Especially for the usual P2P systems that most games still use with matchmaking via third party servers anyway. I can't see myself ever buying a PS4 as a result. They would need some amazing singleplayer exclusives for that to happen.