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As much as I'm looking forward to Wii U's exclusive software this year, some of those games will be 2015 or even 2016 in the case of Zelda U. Smash Brothers and Kart are releasing too far apart to have a serious impact on Wii U's ongoing sales rate, but I think they should do enough to at least hit Nintendo's 3.6 million target for the financial year and maybe exceed it by a bit (say ~10%, or around 400k).

I'm expecting Kart 8, Bayonetta 2, X, Hyrule Warriors and Smash globally this year from Nintendo, with Watch_Dogs and Sonic Boom the only confirmed 'major' third party titles. Presumably CoD, Skylanders and Disney Infinity will continue to feature. Nintendo's own NFC 'platform' should debut this year, but that could either mean unannounced software or integration into existing software, or both. I expect Fire Emblem v Shin Megami Tensei is 2015, Yarn Yoshi could even be vapour-ware, and I expect even if Nintendo announce a lot of new software at E3, they won't be titles for this financial year. I'm guessing big hitters like Zelda will be announced so that people continue to keep an eye on the system.

There will be high quality exclusives on Wii U this year, but it's not going to do anything drastic to the system's commercial performance. Nintendo will carve out a niche they can profit on, as they did with N64 and GameCube.