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That $500 million is an investment in the franchise. I don't think Activision expects to make it all back with 1 game, there is going to be a sequel even if it sells mediocrely.

Now, with that said, I don't think that this game is going to sell as well as they expect



Platinums: Red Dead Redemption, Killzone 2, LittleBigPlanet, Terminator Salvation, Uncharted 1, inFamous Second Son, Rocket League