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I think it may be a bit to early for Retro next game to be announced. At most, Retro has spent 4 months developing their next game. Not to say that they won't announce it, but I don't think the trailer will be anything substantial or worthy of being announced at E3.

Overall, I agree with your predictions. Nintendo might end up playing it safe like last year, which is not bad but neither is it something to get super hyped about.