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Well it all depends doesn't it.

If Mario Kart turns that around on a week by week basis, or if Vita/XBone sales falter then that could change.

To my mind what it boils down to is; will the Xbox One pass the Wii U by Christmas, because with the boost in sales then, the Wii U will probably get within spitting distance of the Vita, if it doesn't pass it altogether.

Assuming this weeks sales are typical, the Xbox One sell 50,000 a week more than the Wii U. And taking round figure from the graph, the gap is ~1.8 million. That would take 36 weeks to close, or 9 months, missing the Christmas deadline...