I think it all depends on 3 things: E3, Mario Kart, and what Nintendo releases between MK8 and Smash Bros.
Who 'wins' or 'loses' at E3 will determine perception of the 3 consoles. If Sony splutters, then Microsoft may well become the choice primary console for the rest of the year. Conversely, if Sony impresses and Nintendo plays some of its aces (eg. new Zelda AND Metroid being shown off), then Microsoft could be left in the dust.
In all probability, I think all 3 will have outstanding E3s, but that Sony might just lose out of complacency.
What Mario Kart does to the baseline sales is the other major factor. I am predicting it will do big things to the baseline, at the very least closing the gap with Xbox One over the summer period.
And depending on when the secondary Nintendo titles land (ie. Bayonetta 2, Sonic Boom, Hyrule Warriors, Yarn Yoshi etc.) that baseline MIGHT remain comparable if the momentum is kept up until the holidays.
The X1 won't fair well this holiday period IMO. Or at least, not as well as the Wii U and PS4 (Wii U has families, PS4 the hype). Essentially whether or not the XBone passes the Wii U (before it's successor lands) comes down to how Sony and Nintendo do; rather than what Microsoft does.
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