NintendoPie said:
You are overplaying something that wouldn't be good. DS did not have a 150 Million install base when Diamond and Pearl came out, anyhow. That's hardly a point in this discussion. I would also like to point out that by the end of the year the 3DS' install base won't be 43 Million, it will grow. Just like how X/Y's sales will grow. In this case, you aren't looking at the entire picture. Anyhow, your made up analytics about games having bad drops in their second year doesn't apply to such a large IP like Pokemon, and one published by Nintendo at that. You know, the "kings" of legs. The only core Pokemon title that had a horrendous 90% drop was Black and White, and that game hardly represents the other entries into the series with it's selling habits. |
You still have too high of expectations, And DS was pulling 30mil a year at that time so yes. Userbase does matter alot, 3ds wont be anywhere near 100mil lifetime.
Pokemon XY sold 10.5mil-11mil Year 1.
Year 2 sales should be between 2mil-3mil. And those are good sales. Look at GBA Sales and you can easily see XY is doing fantastic, especially in todays market, unless you forgot tablets/smartphones?
Pokemon Ruby/Sappire sold about 16mil with an 81mil userbase which came from the original pokemon games.
Edit: Looking at your expectations, XY should do at least 4mil, putting your estimates between 4mil-5mil. That would make total lifetime sales at around 15.5mil-16.5mil :-/ You expect 15months of WW sales to hit higher than BW's Lifetime??? (on a userbase nowhere near half of DS)
