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Soundwave on 12 March 2014
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zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:

Ok so a console thats equel to or greater in price and moderately more powerful than its competitors, with free online but no established online community, trying to steal some of the core demographic of 3rd party gamers from consoles with large install bases and established fanbases of said 3rd party core games. Sounds alot like Wii U vs PS3/360 in 2012-2013 doesnt it?


Well first off, the Wii U is not 3x more powerful than PS3-360 (sorry, nope). Part of that is because MS actually made a very high end system last time, but this time they made a mistake in going lower power, so it would be much easier for Nintendo to out-spec MS in a real meaningful way now, hell Sony is even doing it without benefit of a later launch date. 

Also Wii U in 2012 was coming out the tail end of this generation, to make your analogy work, the Wii U would be something that would launch in 2009 or so, in which case, sure perhaps things would be quite different right now as Nintendo would have years and years to iron out their issues and third parties would be more receptive to a technically relevant console for its time, rather than something that's showing up just as developers are starting to really focus on the next generation. 

I do think there are a ton of Wii owners that ended up buying a PS3 or 360 after 2009 because they simply got tired of Wii Sports and in effect, the PS3/360 already filled the oppurtunity gap that Nintendo had with Wii U. What's so special about the Wii U? It's an HD Wii ... well ok, but those people already bought a PS3 or 360, so what else does it have? A tablet controller? I already have an iPad. That's pretty much the beginning and end of the Wii U. 

Timing really can be everything in this business. 

Ur right its not 100% comparable but the point still stands, it will be competing with cheaper consoles with bigger libraries that already have established fanbases of the the type of games its trying to win over, much bigger/better online communities and vastly larger install bases. Lets look at some of the big 3rd party games on PS4/X1.

Call of Duty:Ghosts-1.94 (PS4), 1.57 (X1), 3.51 (total)

Battlefield 4-1.57 (PS4), 1.20 (X1), 2.77 (total)

FIFA Soccer 14-1.63 (PS4), .78 (X1), 2.41 (total)

Assassin's Creed IV:Black Flag-1.43 (PS4), .69 (X1), 2.12 (total)

NBA 2K14-.76 (PS4), .49 (X1), 1.25 (total)

Need for Speed Rivals-.79 (PS4), .31 (X1), 1.10 (total)

Madden NFL 25-.57 (PS4), .49 (X1), 1.06 (total)

This years installments will likely double these numbers and next years will be 3-4x these numbers. Also the first year of Nintendo's console will probably see many 3rd party games skip it or be late ports at best since they will be too far in development to make it in time. Games like Titanfall 2, Destiny 2, Watch Dogs 2 could all release in 2016 and would sell poorly on Nintendo's console because these games fanbases are all already on the competitors consoles. Even Japanese 3rd party games like Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Resident Evil, Kingdom Hearts will have found homes on PS4/X1 before Nintendo's console gets a chance to see them.

Other games like Witcher 3, Fallout 4, Far Cry 4, The Crew, The Division, Elder Scrolls 6, Evil Within, Grand Theft Auto 6, Dragon Age 3, Tomb Raider, Mass Effect 4 will likely already be out or close to releasing by the time Nintendo's new console hits meaning there will be a very very small window for it to get acceptable 3rd party support and the support that it does get wont sell well because the fanbases are already on consoles hitting there prime as Nintendo's console releases.


Well I'd present an alternate scenario, lets say Nintendo goes ahead with this, and come say 2017 some developer ends up making a really, really killer PC game. Something that really is going to grab the market and be the "next" big franchise (the next generation is not going to be about Call of Duty ... something else is going to rise in its place). 

Now imagine that Nintendo has far and away the best version of this game by virtue of having the better hardware. If they can become the destignated "go to" console for such a big franchise ... that certainly could move more than a few systems. 

It would be similar to the Super NES having Street Fighter II ... even though the Genesis had it too, no one really wanted the Genesis one. The SNES one looked far closer to the arcade version.