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Mummelmann on 27 February 2014
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Shadow1980 said:
Mummelmann said:
vivster said:


I think the safe bet would be PS3 levels.


Agreed, seeing the European numbers, it's hard to imagine sustained sales in the 40-50k region for the PS4 in Japan. I think 20-30k is too optimistic as well. 12-15k weekly for most of Q2 and Q3 is my guess.


Well, we also have to consider what obstacles the PS3 was facing. First off, it was competing for market share against the Wii, and second it was rather pricy. The PS4 is facing the Wii U as its only real competition, and it's not very stiff competition. Also, the PS4 costs ¥8000 less than the 20GB PS3 did at launch. 20-25k a week average from May through October seems quite possible. I just don't see it doing only as well as the PS3, and I think Sony will improve their lot in Japan just as they have in NA and Europe.


It was expensive, no doubt, but as far as the Wii went; the Wii had sole access to a majority market segment that would never show any interest in the PS3 concept anyway, the PS3 greatest hurdle was the 360 and the 360 was clearly not a factor in Japan.
Even with things going against it, losing exclusivity of key franchises such as Final Fantasy and the ridiculous price, there is no arguing that it launched in a far kinder Japanese market for traditional consoles.
Japan has moved more and more in a convenience-oriented direction, they started really favoring handhelds and now we're clearly seeing the 3DS suffer the most in this region despite some fairly poor competiton to Sony's worst selling console ever, by far, as well as tanking home consoles.
On top of that, the Wii U collapsed again in January and is actually down a fair bit year-over-year in Japan, a highly unusual happening in a console's second CY, where it should traditionally climb globally and regionally regardless, this is especially telling when you factor in the purchasing incentives in the Japanese market; they have the best bundles, they had the most time with Wii Party U and Wii Fit U (not that they would have at any rate), and Japan had by far the most enormous sales spike of all the regions in Q4, and collapsed just as badly.

The Japanese market is quite simply not as interested in consoles any more; it won't matter if the PS4 is cheaper than PS3, it won't matter that there is no phenomenon eating up sales (from a market segment that wouldn't touch a PS4 with oven mitts anyway) and it certainly won't help that most of the industry, even the Japanese developers, have taken a turn towards Western-centric features, mechanics and appeal. The mobile/tablet market in Japan has now surpassed the US, despite the US being a much larger gaming market for consoles and overall software as well as in sheer population, this speaks volumes of where the Japanese audience is headed. I just can't see the PS4 outperforming the PS3 in lifetime sales in Japan, but I think it will have a slightly higher yearly average, but a shorter lifecycle. I'll be very surprised if the PS4's baseline is 20k or more through Q2 and Q3, if it climbs towards and over 25k; I'll be downright shocked.