I would cap market share around 50% for PS4. The competition is too strong for any higher.
with XB1 getting the majority of the remainder because of Marketing. 25 - 35%. The XB1 problems are significant but solvable.
Wii U 15% - 25. The Wii U's problem is poisonous.
The only reason I don't think the XB1 can surpass the PS4, is because the X360 was so strong for the same reason PS2 was so strong, multiplats.
XB1 can't count on multiplats anymore because even at parity they don't really act in either consoles favor. Xbox has a lot of work to do building up their exclusive library and they have the least experience with this of the 3 manufacturers. The only Franchise exclusive at Launch was Forza, between this Gears and Halo they have a bunch of new ips they bought.
Not only do these new ips not have any guarantee of success, which Sony has a ton of experiencing with (trying and failing new ips), until they buy out the whole franchise, the larger PS4 marketshare becomes the more likely they will lose their exclusives i.e have to pay more. (Mass Effect). Nobody wants to sell on the smaller install base unless they have to. In other words, Xbox will have to change how they do things.
As for the Wii U, they are fighting against themselves and a battle with relevance at the same time. Id elaborate but ultimately, the 3DS is looking like a more viable secondary then the Wii U is.
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