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Salnax on 22 February 2014
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I think the Wii U can do at least 30 million, if not more. And I have some reasons why.

 

In some ways, the Wii U reminds me of the N64. A fair number of great 1st and 2nd party titles with little else. In total, the N64 only ever had 387 games ever released over its roughly 6 years of life, and 53 of those games were either Nintendo alone. That's a bit under one 3rd party games of any size a week. For comparison's sake, the Wii U had about as many games per week in 2013, with 50 or so retail titles in North America alone.  So, what exactly got the N64 those 33 million sales worldwide?

Unfortunately, VGChartz data doesn't extend back to the 5th gen for most of the world. So I'm largely going to be drawing conclusions from Japanese data when necessary.

Anyhow, the following 12 games were the big guns on the N64. By this, I mean about 10% or more of N64 owners had a copy of these games. In rough chronological order, they were:

  • 1996 - Super Mario 64, Mario Kart 64
  • 1997 - Goldeneye 007, Diddy Kong Racing, Star Fox 64
  • 1998 - Ocarina of Time, Banjo-Kazooie
  • 1999 - Super Smash Bros, Pokemon Stadium, Donkey Kong 64, Pokemon Snap
  • 2000 - Majora's Mask

Most of these games were first party titles, and the remainder were second party. Sure, we get 3rd party games like Star Wars and Tony Hawk further down the list, but the N64 proves that Nintendo and its 2nd parties alone can sell millions of systems.

The question is, can Nintendo repeat the N64's limited success, as it is today?

 

Time for another list of games. This will be similar to the top one, but will instead be adressing Japanese N64 owners. The N64 sold about 5.5 million units in Japan.Therefore, let us see what games sold at least 550,000 copies in Japan alone.

  • 1996 - Super Mario 64, Mario Kart 64
  • 1997 - Yoshi's Story, Diddy Kong Racing, Star Fox 64
  • 1998 - Ocarina of Time, Pokemon Stadium Zero (Japan only), Hey You Pikachu, Mario Party, Banjo-Kazooie
  • 1999 - Super Smash Bros, Donkey Kong 64, Mario Party 2, Pokemon Stadium 1, Pokemon Snap, Mario Golf
  • 2000 - Pokemon Stadium 2, Mario Tennis, Kirby 64, Mario Party 3, Majora's Mask, Paper Mario

A more diverse list than worldwide, but Japan had the highest attach rate of any region for the N64. Also note the lack of 3rd party love.

Here is the annual breakdown.

  • 1996 - 1.6 million consoles, 3.1 million games (Third of which are SM64, and another quarter are Mario Kart 64)
  • 1997 - 1.2 million consoles, 5.0 million games (Sixth of which are Mario Kart 64)
  • 1998 - 1.2 million consoles, 6.4 million games (Sixth of which are Pokemon Stadium)
  • 1999 - 1.0 million consoles, 8.4 million games (15% of which are Super Smash Bros)
  • 2000 - 0.3 million consoles, 6.9 million games (15% of which are Kirby 64)
  • 2001 - 0.1 million consoles, 1.9 million games (Quarter of which are Pokemon Stadium 2)

Now here are a few things worth noting:

  • The N64 was the third place console in Japan, losing to both the Saturn and PS1. It lost for a whole bunch of reasons, but one of these was the lack of quality RPG's. The PS1's top games were Dragon Quest 7 and a trio of Final Fantasy titles. Besides that, many of the big games for the PS1 in Japan (Gran Turismo, Crash Bandicoot, Hot Shots Golf, etc.) were Sony published. The Saturn, meanwhile, also relied heavily on 1st party support, with its best selling games in Japan being Sega's early 3D titles like Virtua Fighter. It appears that 3rd party support broke the tie between the three companies, and 1st party hits were a basic first step for all three console makers.
  • The N64 had two of its three biggest games on launch year. This was definitely a big reason 1996 was the system's biggest year, but another reason has to be the fact that those four RPG's came out starting in 1997. After FF7, it became clear to people which way third party support was going, and they began to leave the N64 behind. The system wasn't really helped much by its lineup either. Yoshi's Story, Diddy Kong Racing, and Star Fox 64 were enough for Nintendo to get by in 1997, but it was definitely not as big a year as others were for the N64. Do note though, that software sales increased, jumping from about 2 games per console at the end of 1996 to about 3 per console by the end of 1997.
  • 1998 was, in terms of hardware, very similar to 1997. This is remarkable, seeing as by this point the PS1 had really taken off and by this point everyone had already bought SM64 and MK64. The new sales have to be attributed to the new games. Ocarina of Time was the biggest the Zelda series has ever gotten, and Pokemon also began to find its home on consoles this year. However, like 1997, 1998 did not offer much in the way of HUGE games. That said, the attach rate rose again, to about 3.6 games per console.
  • 1999 included the final huge N64 title: Super Smash Bros. It alone helped the N64 barely drop in terms of hardware, even as it began getting a bit old, especially compared to the new Dreamcast that was released late 1998. Smash has helped by a whole bunch of lesser but still notable titles, including more Pokemon and Mario spinoffs. Note that this was the best year yet for software; software peaked about three years later after hardware for the N64 in Japan.
  • Only in 2000 and 2001 did N64 hardware and software sales really collapse. This was largely due to Nintendo's shifting to GameCube development, the release of Dragon Quest 7, the launch of the PS2, and the fact that the N64 has basically abandoned in 2001.

 

 

So, what does all this mean? Well, several things:

  1. By creating a large number of 1st party games, not necessarily all of which are huge, Nintendo can release enough stuff to support their console, at least in the eyes of the mass market and more casual purchasers. Hardcore gamers might want more games for their systems, but Nintendo only has to really release about one solid seller a quarter on average in order to get by.
  2. Like we saw more recently with the GameCube and Wii, the Nintendo 64 collapses during its last year or two on the market. It can be accredited to shifting to more powerful consoles, making new handhelds (the GBA, DS, and 3DS all preceded their equivalent consoles by anywhere from half a year to two years), or anything else. The Wii U will likely do the same.
  3. A lot of the big Nintendo series of yesteryear are still big deals. However, of the big three N64 series in Japan, the Wii U currently only has a 3D Mario. Mario kart and Super Smash Bros are the other two, and are coming to the Wii U this year.
  4. In the case of the N64, some games would dominate sales for chunks of time. That is currently what is happening on the Wii U, with Mario's platforming games making up a large portion of the software pie.
  5. Even if hardware sells poorly, software can do pretty well. Note the 23 to 1 ratio in 2000 for Japan.

 

As of right now, the situation for the Wii U is in some ways better and in others worse than that of the N64. The N64's legendary library probably made a bigger impact than the closest Wii U equivalents will. However, the Wii U is not necessarily harder to port games to. In the 90's it was cartridges that got in the way, in 2014 it's the RAM and CPU. Either way, ports to Nintendo platforms are difficult. And the Wii U has a whole new department that the N64 never had: the eShop. Between the Virtual Console and download-only games, the eShop has a lot of value to offer, and can fill time between big releases if well managed and advertised.

 

 

 

Conclusion:

At this point, Nintendo fans saying that Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros 4 will save the Wii U is a bit cliche. However, there is a grain of truth to this idea. SSB and MK are two of Nintendo's most reliable series, in that they push a fair amount of hardware and sell a lot of games. What's more, they will not be the sole saviors of the Wii U. Other games are coming out in 2014, each of which will give the console, if not a jump, at least a parachute for sales. The Wii U was likely very expensive for Nintendo to make, but if they keep on supporting it through 2016 at least with plenty of software, they can get their money back through software.

 

 

And now for my Short Term Wii U Saving Plan:

  • Mario Kart 8 Bundle announced in advance of game's launch at a Spring Nintendo Direct.
  • Hype Mario Kart up as much as possible, even if it's at the expense of Smash Bros. This series was about three times bigger than Smash Bros on the Wii U, and even if only a third of MKWii buyers return, that's still a 10 million seller. Besides, since Smash Bros is being released on the other side of E3, Nintendo will have plenty of time to hype that up too.
  • Meanwhile, start offering more regular and attractive eShop sales, especially for smaller games. Additionally, you can give every Wii U owner $5 of eShop store credit once or twice a year in order to help encourage indie development.
  • Mario Kart 8 will likely raise Wii U sales to a notably higher level for at least a limited amount of time. Nintendo's goal in June should be trying to keep those thousands of new buyers invested in the Wii U. 
  • Over the summer, Nintendo should not release Smash Bros 4, but should find ways to keep on standing out. Bayonetta 2 will help at least in Japan, but Bayonetta won't be out in the West yet. Perhaps this would be a good time to start offering Wii games via eShop? Even if they're not in HD, quite a few people will pay $20 to get some Wii games on their console, especially for the rare and/or overpriced ones (Xenoblade). In fact, even if it's the only Wii game on the eShop, Nintendo should try to port Xenoblade over via eShop. It'd only raise awareness for the upcoming X.
  • Yarn Yoshi would also be a good game to fill the summer months. Just saying. Especially because it already looked pretty good about a year ago. But if Good-Feel needs until the holidays, I understand.
  • Assuming Super Smash Bros 4 comes out in September to November, here's what I'd recommend next: new hardware/bundle options. Smash Bros should have a bundle, of course, but late 2014 would also be a good time to either cut the price on the Wii U or, better yet, offer a new model. More storage and/or a slimmer design would be an obvious attraction. The same 32 GB model has already been around for over a year and a half, so late 2014 would be decent timing for something new in that department.
  • Hyrule Warriors, assuming it's released in Japan this year, should be released about a month after Super Smash Bros 4. This would put it somewhere in Q4, and would give the Wii U a decent Holiday lineup alongside Smash Bros there. It can release as late as mid-December, seeing as Holiday sales are a bit later over there.
  • Meanwhile in the West, Bayonetta 2 should come out a month before or after SSB4. Just time it so that there's at least one big Wii U game a month for a few months if possible. The 3DS back in 2011 actually had a slim lineup even late in the year, but Nintendo's spacing out notable games from September through December (Star Fox 64 3D, Pokemon Rumble Blast, Super Mario 3D Land, Mario kart 7, and eShop titles) made it feel like a thriving system.
  • All the while, continue to promote 3rd party games whenever possible. They might not be around for the Wii U's entire life, but at the moment, the Wii U is still getting Watch Dogs, Disney Infinity 2, etc. Advertise exclusive features/content and bundle these.


Love and tolerate.