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JoeTheBro on 20 February 2014
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Mummelmann said:
JoeTheBro said:
Mummelmann said:
Undeniable cause for worry for the One at this point, but it's only a little bit behind the PS3 at the same time frame, looking like my expectation for it to match the PS3's first full year won't be too far off at this point.

PS3 was only out in Japan and the US at this point. Does XBONE have anything this year that'll bump its sales as much as the European launch bumped PS3 sales?


That is true, however, the PS3 sunk like a stone only a few weeks after the EU launch so the overall figures for the year weren't very high and the One won't need an amazing baseline to match it when all is said and done. And I do believe that the One can match these CY numbers if MS pulls their heads out of their posterior by the time Q4 rolls on. The One has potential for sure, but it needs a key to unlock it, unlike the PS4, which manages to sell very well on its own and without much in the way of system selling software. It's not as simple as the PS4 "eating all of the One's sales" either; the PS4 sales aren't really that extreme when viewed in context with the likes of the Wii (people are shouting about supply constraints, but that didn't stop the Wii from having over 250k average weeks through Q2 and Q3 2007), so there are definitely people waiting to upgrade, I don't know why so many are assuming that the PS4 is stealing all the 360 customers as well as retaining all the PS3 customers; it's a very unrealistic notion, in my opinion.

The PS3 did 3.4 million in Europe in 2007. Minus the huge first, second, and even third weeks inflated from launch Europe still accounted for about 3 million units, even if that went as low as 20k a week. On top of that WW Microsoft's console did about 400k in the past 6 weeks. The PS3 did about 430k for the same time frame. XBONE is as you said only a little bit behind, but it has to overcome this deficit before it can even bother chipping away at Europe numbers.

I think it's a little bit simpler to just look at 360 numbers. It did 6.8 million for its first full year and was tracking well above both PS3 and XBONE. For the comparable 6 weeks from above it did about 650k. That still wasn't enough to make it beat the PS3 once Europe entered the mix. For argument's sake, what would you consider "too far off" PS3 numbers?

 

"PS4 sales aren't really that extreme when viewed in context with the likes of the Wii." Unless you're coming from the "been there done that" perspective, I can't say I agree. The PS4 LTD is the best selling console of all time and YTD it's only behind the Wii. We'll certainly have to see how sales perform over the long run, but right now both systems are still very close with each one winning and losing some comparisons. The PS4 hasn't even had Q2 and Q3 of its first full year so what makes you so sure it woun't also be doing 250k weekly?

People certainly are waiting to upgrade though. It's not like the PS3, 360, PS2, etc. stoped selling once their supply issues were sorted out. Infamous should give a good boost to demand because of this.

I think the reason people are assuming the PS4 is tacking 360 owners is because we have lots and lots of accounts of 360 guys switching over, but only one account (stage's dorm lol) doing the opposite*. I think we can also see this with software sales.

The 4BONE versions are neck and neck with about 1.8 million on PS4 and 1.5 million on XBONE. Blops 2 PS3 at 14 weeks minus Ghosts PS3 plus ghosts PS4 = -0.3 million. That's a really small drop yoy for the franchise. Same equation applied to XBOX gives negative 1.5 million. If about half a million COD gamers didn't move from 360 to PS4, then what happened?



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