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95.737k is what would happen if stock situations are identical to the rest of the world. However Sony would have been holding back stock for this launch, so that could bump the ratio pushing it just up to 150k.

The real question is why did Sony announce ww numbers the other day? Are they expecting a low Japan launch and will hide it by not announcing numbers next week, or are they expecting a huge Japan launch and they want to show off essentially? Sadly the data supports the former, but my heart supports the later.

 

450k is my final number, although I have no confidence in it whatsoever. The math and statistics just point to such a low number so I don't know what to do.