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It's pretty bad, Nintendo's forecast for the Wii U through the end of March 2014 will be a shade over 6 million Wii Us (if they can hit that) ... the GameCube was at almost 10 million at the same point in its lifespan (fiscal year end March 2003).

That means really most likely the bumps from Mario Kart/Smash are just going to take the Wii U to GameCube levels.