I don't think Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros will move 10-20m units directly, but have the potential to get things started in that direction. Anyone who thinks those two games wont push many units (as in predicting less than 20m LTD) needs to look at the sales trends for these franchises. In fact, Mario Kart 7 is still selling well and is on its way to selling 10m anytime now.
Here's the Mario Kart sales
| 1 | Mario Kart Wii | Wii | 2008 | Racing | Nintendo | 15.06 | 12.35 | 3.71 | 3.19 | 34.32 |
| 2 | Mario Kart DS | DS | 2005 | Racing | Nintendo | 9.55 | 7.28 | 4.12 | 1.87 | 22.82 |
| 3 | Mario Kart 64 | N64 | 1996 | Racing | Nintendo | 5.55 | 1.94 | 2.23 | 0.15 | 9.87 |
| 4 | Mario Kart 7 | 3DS | 2011 | Racing | Nintendo | 3.59 | 2.71 | 2.27 | 0.65 | 9.23 |
| 5 | Super Mario Kart | SNES | 1992 | Racing | Nintendo | 3.54 | 1.24 | 3.81 | 0.18 | 8.76 |
| 6 | Mario Kart: Double Dash!! | GC | 2003 | Racing | Nintendo | 4.12 | 1.77 | 0.87 | 0.19 | 6.95 |
| 7 | Mario Kart: Super Circuit | GBA | 2001 | Racing | Nintendo | 2.62 | 1.64 | 0.99 | 0.23 | 5.47 |
and now Smash Bros
| Pos | Game | Platform | Year | Genre | Publisher | North America | Europe | Japan | Rest of World | Global |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Super Smash Bros. Brawl | Wii | 2008 | Fighting | Nintendo | 6.19 | 2.35 | 2.56 | 0.94 | 12.04 |
| 2 | Super Smash Bros. Melee | GC | 2001 | Fighting | Nintendo | 4.41 | 1.04 | 1.39 | 0.22 | 7.07 |
| 3 | Super Smash Bros. | N64 | 1999 | Fighting | Nintendo | 2.95 | 0.60 | 1.97 | 0.04 | 5.55 |
If we ignore the Wii and DS entries for these games, we still have a minimum of 5m software sold for each. It is perfectly reasonable to think these titles alone can push 1m+ Wii U hardware each given Wii U's userbase is already so low to begin with (5m is pretty much how many Wii U's there are right now. I doubt anyone here thinks it's possible to have a 100% attach rate, or even high 80's to 90's for LTD on these games).
These games itself don't show Wii U going to 20m units sold, but it will make the Wii U momentum pick up and, as more games are released, sales will stabalize at a higher rate (much more so than it is now). The chances of this happening are extremely high. Those who doubt are not being realistic, because the data here is pretty evident that these series have NOT shrunk. They have only grown and is only natural to believe that it would do at least somewhere within the ranges shown.








