PS4 will sell 200 million console sales this generation?

[ICStats]

Shadow1980 said:
Not impossible, but I think it's extremely unlikely. I do think it stands a very good chance of selling roughly around PS2 numbers (140-160 million) due to decreased competition from Nintendo and general growth in the market size, but I don't think the market is quite big enough for a 200-million-seller. Maybe if the XBO ends up by some fluke selling as poorly as the Wii U, then maybe, but the XBO is looking to do well enough in America (maybe not first place, but definitely capable of holding its own against the PS4) to where there's not enough of the global market available for the PS4 to sell 200 million units. At present, there are 260 million seventh-gen home consoles on the market, and assuming that just as many hardware units are sold this generation, Sony would have to capture over 75% of all hardware sales this generation, comparable to the portion of sixth-gen console sales held by the PS2, and I don't see quite that level of domination for reasons mentioned earlier.

Of course, this is assuming that 200 million is even numerically possible in the first place. Let's not forget that not all households are single-system households, and as there is some overlap thanks to multi-system households (I have almost every system made ever), there are obviously fewer than 260 million console-owning households. However, the exact number is not certain due to insufficient data, so we can only make rough guesses as to the "true size" of the console market. In the sixth generation it was most likely greater than 150 million (the number of PS2s sold) and definitely less than 210 million (the total number of consoles sold that gen). Given population growth and the increasing average age of gamers the market has probably grown some since then, but there's still a wide possible range. Unfortunately, the only source I have found on numbers of console-owning households was a Nielsen report from a couple of years ago and that covers only the U.S, but if the estimated consoles per household ratio is the same everywhere else (which is probably isn't, and is likely lower), the number of console-owning households worldwide may not quite be 200 million. Even if there are or will be enough households (certainly a possibility, considering gaming's explosive growth over the past 30 years), the proportion of those households that Sony would need to buy PS4s for the system to hit 200 million may be nearly impossible to attain.

I think we really have to take account of indirect factors like that which pumped up sales before.

PS1 & PS2 -> huge levels of piracy.  A lot of PS2's were purchased and modded immediately.
PS1 & PS2 -> drive failure issues, driving people to replace them.
Xbox 360 -> whole system failures, drive failures, noisy DVD drives, driving people to replace and update to newer model.

If the PS4 is very stable and hack proof then it will actually sell less units, but would be bigger success for Sony.