I dont see PS4 doing less than PS3 in Japan when it's doing much better everywhere else.
Sales will be more closer to PS2.
I think the " Home consoles market is dead in Japan " is a legend . We have no way to know that, it only depends of games, yes PS3 had less japan games than PS2 because of the difficulty to develop on next gen, but such things can change and Japan developers showed the will to change that recently( even Japan Studio is waking up), and since PS4 will be the leader of the generation, they'll have much more exclusives
Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:
PS4: 17m XB1: 10m WiiU: 10m Vita: 10m







