What's the point of no return for WiiU?

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To sell well, Wii U needs two things:
- The big guns; Mario Kart and Smash
- A price within the casual/lower income shopper's buying range ($199)

Even once it has the big games, that won't be enough if it's priced too high for the primary buyers of those games.

If it's still $299 when Smash/Kart arrive and those don't kick it into high gear, it's not over.