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chris_wing on 05 January 2014
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oniyide said:
chris_wing said:

I think Mario Kart will get about a 50% attach rate by the end of 2014, a good question is will it drive Wii U sales? I'll play it safe and say 4.5 million copies by the end of 2014.

Smash will get maybe 25-30% attach rate since it's a fighting game & not as accessible as MK, again, will it be a system seller? I'll say around 2.3 million by year end.


im sorry but no. NSMBWiiU has sold a little more than 3 mil. thats with it being bundled and on the market for little more than a year. It is a far more popular franchise than either Smash or Kart. you think MK will do more than a 2d Mario with only 9 months? Explain. 

Your Smash numbers make sense...if one wants to pretend their is no 3DS version, which i gaurantee will take some sales away from the WIi U.

Well, I'm one of those people who thinks that Mario Kart is one of Nintendo's healthier franchises, & one that can actually benifit from being on an HD console, unlike NSMBWU which looks almost identical in tech (on first glance) to the Wii game.  NSMBWU also had two other Mario/Luigi platformers to compete with in the systems first year, so saturation is a problem.  I'm also assuming that the Wii U install base will almost double by the end of 2014 to around 9 million, not the 4ish million that NSMBWU has been selling to until recently.

As for Smash, I'm nt too worried about the 3DS version taking sales from the Wii U version, some super fans will buy both, but most people with a Wii U will chose to buy it for the Wii U, but the 3DS version may impact new Wii U system sales since people will have the 3DS option.