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TruckOSaurus said:
Zod95 said:
TruckOSaurus said:

Just look at GTAV sales on PS3. It had slighly less competitors than GT6 (let's say 2800 games) but it managed to do 8,964,391 on the first week, a huge step up from the 2,479,637 done by GTAIV. Why? Because of the huge difference in install base between May 2008 and September 2013 (12.3m vs 78.8m).

So as you can see the number of games available on the system is not a big enough factor to counterbalance a difference in install base.

Because GTA V is better than GTA IV. GTA IV had less area than San Andreas, no rural environments, less content (no bikes, no food affecting the body, no gym affecting the muscles, etc.), less sim missions (no taxi, for example), etc. GTA V has everything and much more. It's undoubtly the best GTA ever made and, because of that, it will become the best sold too.

Your logic is simply not valid. For example, GRID came in 2008 for PS3 and X360 (like GTA IV) and has sold 1,90M so far. GRID 2 came in 2013 again for PS3 and X360 (like GTA V) and has sold 0,44M so far...a series in the exact same conditions (sequels, platforms and years) and with the opposite results' trend.

Again, unless people can prove me that the best selling games of a platform never come at the beginning, I will assume one factor counterbalances the other. To give 1 single example (like you did) proves nothing.

We're talking first week sales here, not lifetime sales. GTAIV was critically praised just as much GTAV, it also was the successor to San Andreas and the first GTA of the 7th gen, all positive factors for the game and yet it sold a lot less on the first week than GTAV. The only way to explain the difference between the two openings is by taking into account the fact that the install base when GTAV was released was much larger than when GTAIV first came out.

No, we aren't. You quoted me for having quoted Anfebious. He said "Well Gran Turismo 6 is selling on a platform that has 80 million users while Super Mario 3D World is selling on a platform that has 5 million users. There is kind of a difference". So it's not just about the first week.

I can give you examples about critically acclaimed games with poor sales. Much more relevant is what gamers in general have to say about the game. After all, the sales come from them, not from the critic.

Being the successor of a great game is also far from enough. If the game is not that good, people won't buy it. Specially if they need to buy a new console for that matter, which you take it as a "positive factor" too.

You insist on talking just about the first week but that is pointless in my opinion. There are games with more legs and others that are more front-loaded. So when you compare 1st weeks of different games you lose the perception of their real performance once you let the front-loaded factor to contaminate your analysis...which I hope it's about GT6's and M3DW's performance so far, not just the first week. If you have doubts, please read the OP.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M