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With all what's coming, i would say before december 2014, maybe even 11M at the end of the year.

PS4 will help a lot, because people have to subscribe to PS+ , there will be much much more feeling the need to buy Vita when they'll see all the free games


Dont underestimate PS4 megaton + PS+ .  Sony had a great idea  there.



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m