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Salnax on 27 December 2013
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Maybe in 2018 or so, but NOT in 2014. I won't deny that the Japanese lineup for the Vita looks alright for 2014, but is it really enough for it to, say, double sales year over year? And do you really think the 3DS is going to have no support or something? Consider the following things that may give the 3DS Momentum:

  • Japan still hasn't seen a 2DS release. Even if Japan likes 3D more than the West, the 2DS would likely become the default cheap system for children and casual gamers. Even if it flops like Vita TV, it would still provide a notable boost. And Nintendo can still release a new 3DS model that's not the 2DS at all in 2014, possibly one that appeals to original purchasers ala the DSi.
  • The currently named 3DS lineup for 2014 is not as strong as that of 2012 or 2013, but is far from weak. The last original handheld Kirby title was a million-seller in Japan alone. Super Smash Bros 4 3DS is sort of an unknown quantity, but even if it only sells half of what Brawl did, that's another million-seller. Yoshi's New Island DS predecessor was, you guessed it, a million-seller in Japan alone. That's three games likely to reach the top 10 games of 2014 right there. And that's not counting smaller games like Persona Q, that Dragon Quest remake, Mario Golf, etc.
  • The current 3DS lineup still has some juice left. Pokemon D/P sold a million copies in Japan alone the year after it came out. Monster Hunter 3 Portable sold over 800,000 copies on an obolescent system its second year, despite competition from the 3DS version of MH3. Therefore, it is likely that Pokemon X/Y and MH4 will each continue to sell well in 2014. And of course, Zelda is only releasing at the very end of 2013, meaning the bulk of its sales are likely to happen in 2014.
  • The 3DS lineup is still likely to grow! Pokemon Z or Pokemon G3 remakes are likely to come in late 2014. Less notable but still relevant is the possibility of sequels to existing 3DS games. Super Mario 3D Land 2 is likely IMO, if only because it's already been a couple of years since the original, the assets are already there, and EAD Tokyo can multitask. A new Fire Emblem could be released 2 and a half years after Awakening. Majora's Mask 3D has all but been confirmed. Etc.

With all of that in mind, do you really think the Vita can make up for the 4-fold difference between the systems in 2013?



Love and tolerate.