The only platforms that could support a million seller in Japan next year are the 3DS, Wii U, PS3, and PS4. Nothing else on the market in 2014 will have the installbase and relevance, or even the potential for those things. The PS3, as of now, has no huge games announced, and indeed has only ever had two million-sellers in the country's history. That leaves the 3DS, Wii U, and PS4.
The 3DS has a number of possible contenders. Pokemon Gen 3 remakes, or a "third version" of X/Y, perhaps called "Z," would almost certainly break a million by merit of being a main series Pokemon title. Likewise, an "Ultimate" edition of Monster Hunter 4 would be an easy million-seller. Out of the known titles, Super Smash Bros 4 is the most promising, but is also a largely unknown quantity, as the first handheld or multiplatform iteration in the series. Yoshi's New Island, if released early in the year or is otherwise surprisingly popular, might just make it. Kriby Triple Deluxe could be a surprise hit, considering how Kirby Super Star Ultra sold over 900,000 in one year and wasn't even a new game. As for existing games, Pokemon X/Y might have the legs to do about 20,000 a week in 2014.
The Wii U actually has goodshot at having at least one million-seller. Super Smash Bros Brawl sold 1.8 million in Japan in 2008, so even if there were a 40% decline in series popularity, that game would still break a million. Likewise, Mario Kart Wii sold 2 million in 2008, so even if 8 only sells half as well in 2014, it would still reach a million. Meanwhile, the already released Super Mario 3D World and Wii Party U have the best bets of selling a million in 2014 alone out of the system's curent library.
On the PS4, the only announced or likely title for 2014 million-seller status is Final Fantasy 15. However, even if it were released in, say, Q4, which I still find unlikely, the game would have trouble flourishing simply because it'd be on such a young platform that would likely lack penetration. Based on FF13's 30% or so penetration of the PS3 market at its high point, the PS4 would have to sell a couple million units from March to the end of 2014 to make the cut.
Estimates:
- Mario Kart 8 - 60% chance
- Pokemon G3 Remakes/Z - 50% chance
- Super Smash Bros 4 Wii U - 45% chance
- Pokemon X/Y - 40% chance
- Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate - 30% chance
- Super Smash Bros 4 3DS - 25% chance
- Kirby Triple Deluxe - 20% chance
- Super Mario 3D World - 15% chance
- Wii Party U - 15% chance
- Yoshi's New Island - 10% chance
- Final Fantasy 14 - 5% chance
Conclusion: If I had to guess right now, I'd say that Japan will have 2 to 4 million sellers in 2014. Of these, all 1 to 3 will be for 3DS and 1 will be for the Wii U. The PS4 simply doesn't seem to have any possible candidates as of right now. This means, strangely enough, the Wii U might have one last chance to "win" in Japan this generation, if only by siezing a piece of the shrinking console pie. Still, with the PS3 diminishing, the PS4 unlikely to start strong, and the Vita remaining niche, 2014 will continue Nintendo's reign in the country.
