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Yes I agree with it. Lots of people who bought a Wii won't be buying a console this gen.

I knew several people who would never buy game console's like my girlfriend's parents and my cousins (two girls) who own a Wii, but they are not interested in a Wii U. Wii was a fun thing a few years ago, that time has passed. 

Playstation/XBox market will basically remain the same just with a different split, instead of say 80 million for both like this generation looks like, maybe more like 100 million PS4s and 65 million XB1s.

PS4 - 100 million

XB1 - 65 million

Wii U - 22 million

3DS - 85 milion

Vita - 15 million

Is how I'm now viewing this gen playing out.