kowenicki said:
Rogerioandrade said:
Asriel said:
It's too soon to tell. Xbox One and PS4 aren't going to make up for the declines of older devices over night. In terms of all consoles, portable and home, then it's highly unlikely this generation will show growth from the last.
We had a strong Nintendo home console for a chunk of the generation, which created much of the growth early in the generation, and we had one strong portable (PSP) and one incredibly successful portable (DS), alongside two slow-burn but ultimately very successful consoles in 360 and PS3.
Now, it's very early days still, but we have a Nintendo home console that is so far, Nintendo's worst performing machine, and we don't know yet how this will pan out, but that already robs this generation of the growth curve of the Wii. Vita is never going to match PSP, and 3DS is never going to match DS. Even if we say that Wii U will sell 20 to 40 million, Vita 20 to 40 million and 3DS 100 million, that's a loss of 130 to 170 million hardware units from one generation to another. It is far too soon to say that PS4 and Xbox One are going to be so successful as to make up for these losses, but with at least three consoles (even the successful 3DS) showing generational declines, PS4 and Xbox One will be hard pressed to show growth from their predecessors and offset the broader declines.
I'd say it's likely the console industry will shrink in terms of units sold, but it's important to remember that number isn't an equivalent for the loss of consumers. Obviously some consumers will be lost, but because of multiple hardware ownership, it won't be so high as the 130 to 170 million units suggests. It's also very important to remember this is the most turbulent period in the games industry since Nintendo entered in the 1980s. The enormous success of launches should be celebrated, but they shouldn't be used to hide the challenges ahead.
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Nice analysis. That´s what I think too. I don´t see this new generation selling as successfull as the last one, which saw inflated numbers from Nintendo consoles and casual gaming (Kinect, Just Dance, Guitar Hero etc ). I do believe that casuals are not coming to games anymore and that will reflect directly in the decrease of sales.
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People dont want to hear it but you are actually correct. They come in with a very simplistic answer without actually looking at the evidence and the history.
Nintendo and Sony for sure and probably MS have already peaked.
Sony peaked in hardware shipments in 2007 at 36.6m. They wont do that again, ever, as they will not have any handheld presence of note in the future. This financial year they are looking at 19m to 20m which is the lowest number of Playstation shipments since the year 2000. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=151861
Nintendo have clearly peaked too.
Its just a fact people like to deny, dedicated gaming hardware is in decline.
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There´s one key fact that also make me doubt that any brand this generation will surpass its predecessors
Every main console launched after 2006, with the exception of the Wii, struggled to sell well on its first months or even years. PS3 and Xbox 360 only started to sell really well after price drops. The same goes for 3ds. Vita and WiiU are still struggling, even with competitive prices (of course there´s the game library problem, but both consoles actually have great libraries by now)
Can this be an indication that part of those consumers may not be willing to spent big money on consoles anymore? right now we are hiding the waves of hype and holidays heat. I´m really curious to see how each platform will perform in 2014 Q1-Q2
