I think some of the new Kinect/Voice features convenience and usefulness may overshadow the games. If it works like it should, it will continue to be revolutionary.
I'm sure their will be a few hickup. But I don't see how the others can compete with all that it can do. I wish they had decided it sell it for a loss the first year or two, and plopped in that 2.5 Tflop GPU, but it wouldn't really change that much. With diminishing returns it would only look some better. Plus, the innovations in software seem to outshine the need.
But next year is the real competition. This year is just the warm up for the hard core. Will have to see after the Thanksgiving Weekend Buzz.
Then maybe glasses the following year.
DL/DR: I think it will do very well and Kinect may outshine or equal gaming aspects.