I did say 35-45 in my first post mentioning numbers, a 35k average from february and, say until october would net about 1.2-1.25 million sales in that period, add another 180-200k for january with the comedown numbers, that's about 1.4-1.47 million sales in the same period where the U has moved less than 8ook this year, add a decent Q4 2014 and you have another 2-2.2 million there and about 4 million for the year.
Not entirely unrealistic.
If you go with 45k weekly average from february and until october, that would net about 1.6 million or there abouts for feb-october, increase for a similar january, that's another 230-260k there and about 2.5-2.8 million for the holidays and a peak year for the Wii U at about 4.3-4.7 million.
Bear in mind, as mentioned, my theory is that the Wii U as a product simply lacks basic appeal for both core and casual gamers, where the Wii was all poise and guile, the Wii U is an uncharismatic and lumbering baboon with few friends, to put it bluntly.
As for lifetime, I do enjoy Benji's attempt to force a fictional number on me and stick it to my name. I have never stated 12-14 million lifetime, nor am I dumb enough to think that holiday weeks never go beyond regular weeks, please don't underestimate me like that.
You seem to assume that the Wii U will remain on the market for as long as the Wii though, or perhaps even PS360, I think that's another misconception, I believe the Wii U's life cycle will be considerably shorter than the Wii's.
Meaning, for now, I think it will sell somewhere between 18-25 million by the end, give or take a tiny bit.
Note my year end predictions for 2013, the Wii U will be slightly over half of the predicted number come january 2014 and I was considered to be lowballing my numbers a great deal. Do you guys even understand that the Wii U has sold only slightly more than 1 million in the 10 first months of the year? Do you understand how bad that is regardless of price and software?
You have to dig very deep in home console history to find those numbers, and none of them were winners either.
For me, it's simply common sense, people are overestimating Nintendo here and are applying the age old logic of "Nintendo know what they're doing", just like Sony knew what they were doing when they were on top, or how GM knew what they were doing a decade ago. The fact that the Wii U exists and that they are now doing exactly what I said they should have done a long time ago; cut the Basic model, shows that they really don't know what they're doing.
The Wii U was forced on the market by a stressed Nintendo, the situation is entirely unique in history, a record selling pace followed by a record decline, removing all momentum in about two years flat, leaving a market leader hanging, forcing a poorly planned heir out with no support, hardware sold at a loss and extended development times and costs for 1st party titles to help it float.
Edit; for comparisons sake, the 360 did about 3.5 million from february till october in its first full year on the market and about 6.5 million units total first full year. It wasn't exactly loaded with quality software for a while there, with the likes of Perfect Dark Zero, a converted Nintendo franchise and Kameo to pull most of the weight, it certainly didn't start off with a flagship title in the grid.
The PS3, who people love to pull out as an example did about 3.3 million from january till october in the first full year on the market, and this was with an insane price tag, shit software like Lair and a staggered launch. It sold nearly 8 million in the first full year on the market.
Like I said, the Wii U sold a little over 1 million from feb to october this year and is on route to sell under 3.5 million in the first full year on the market. That is pretty horrible and shows that there are problems besides software and price behind it (the price isn't even that high, it's only 50$ above the original Wii now, for a HD machine that's not bad).
Edit 2; with the recent adjustments, the drop in sales is truly massive, the price cut is practically without effect. Does my thinking still seem over the top and unrealistic? We won't know anything for certain until we're well into Q1 2014 but things aren't looking fantastic right now.
Essay Pro