250k pre-orders doesn't insure much of anything, sorry to say. Although, it does indicate that there WILL be lots of strength in the title.
The closest game I can think of would be MHP2 for PSP. I believe it had ~500k preorders.
Realilisticly, what matters is how many copies will be available @ launch.
I would certainly expect around 400k for the opening week, not opening day (probably closer to 300k).
This would atleast ensure the game to reach 750k in Japan. Could it get to 1m? Most likely. However, its not ensured. One-Piece, although keeping steady @ 5k/wk, had 30k o/d, 40k o/w, and is still under 70k. Its hard to compare a uber-3rd party title, but from what we have to go off of (and including Wii Naturo and Fire Emblem), a serious game like this might only have a 2.0~2.5 multiplier. Yet at the same time, it could pull a WarioWare or Wii Sports/Play and get an insane multiplier too.
Right now, I'd say 425k o/w, and 900k lifetime.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
